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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd